Linear Regression and Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) Forecasting


Scenario: You are a consultant for the Diligent Consulting Group (DCG). You have completed the first assignment, developing and testing a forecasting method that uses Linear Regression (LR) techniques (Module 2 Case). However, the consulting manager at DCG wants to try a different forecasting method as well. Now you decide to try Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) to forecast sales. Conduct accurate and complete SES analysis in Excel. You may also check the following link for your reference: Written Report Length requirements: 2 – 3 pages minimum (not including Cover and Reference pages). NOTE: You must submit 2 – 3 pages of written discussion and analysis. This means that you should avoid use of tables and charts as “space fillers.” Provide a brief introduction to/background of the problem. Complete a written analysis that supports your Excel analysis, discussing the assumptions, rationale, and logic used to complete your SES forecast. Give complete, meaningful, and accurate recommendation(s) relating to whether LR or SES is more accurate in predicting sales. Write clearly, simply, and logically. Use double-spaced, black Verdana or Times Roman font in 12 pt. type size. Have an introduction at the beginning to introduce the topics and use keywords as headings to organize the report. Avoid redundancy and general statements such as “All organizations exist to make a profit.” Make every sentence count. Paraphrase the facts using your own words and ideas, employing quotes sparingly. Quotes, if absolutely necessary, should rarely exceed five words.

Sample Solution