Imagine that you are a successful business executive for a toy company, ChoiceToys. You are tasked to market one of the two new toys for the upcoming holiday season based on an optimal decision strategy. As the data analyst, you will be responsible for providing the expected profit payoff and associated probabilities.
In your initial post, using the scenario below, you will be acting as the data executive speaking to a data analyst. You will need to speak to the data analyst and get more information so you can develop a decision analysis. Given the information the data analyst has provided, what more data do you think you need to create a decision analysis?
Toy 1 is being introduced to the market for the first time by ChoiceToys with no market competition. ChoiceToys believes that competitors will not be able to bring a similar toy to the market for this upcoming holiday season. You are not sure how the toy will be received by the consumers and there is equal chance that it will be highly successful, successful, or not successful. You will need to determine what the expected profit payoff will be and provide this in your scenario.
Toy 2 has been in the market, is known to consumers, and is in demand; however, it has two other competitors in the marketplace. If marketed, ChoiceToys will be one of the three companies selling this toy in the market in the upcoming holiday season. You will have to determine the profit payoff for Toy 2 respectively for a highly successful, successful, and not successful case. You will also need to determine the probability that Toy 2 will be highly successful in the market and equal chances for being successful or not successful in the market.
As a data analyst, you need to use decision analysis techniques to recommend decision alternatives or optimal decisions based on expected profit payoff for the upcoming holiday season. Respond to one of your peers’ initial posts, and complete the following:
Identify the sequence of actions you need to take to start this decision process.
Explain each sequence and justify why it will help you with your decision.
Propose a risk profile for each choice.
The agricultural era’s pragmatic approach to parenting may seem callous to modern sensibilities, but consider that mortality rates for children at the time ranged from 30-50%. Death was an expected quotient in the family planning calculation, and as Lancy once stated in an interview, even to this day, “In most societies, a mother’s becoming too attached to her infant is a bad thing. The attitude is that parents should develop emotional ties slowly over time, as the child’s viability becomes established.” Often children weren’t even named until they were out of infancy, or the names of deceased children were used on their newborn siblings—underscoring an effort to emotionally disconnect until a child proved to thrive. The atmosphere required children to become hardened to death, as well—it was a very real constant in every family. Children at the time were also simply abandoned, hired out, or given to other families—anything to even out resources. Girls were married off in their early teens, but boys required resources so they could start their own families, which allowed them a reprieve from formal adulthood until their 20s. The backbone of agricultural parenting was obedience and discipline. Confucianism in China concerned families with educating male children, and underscoring a sense of parental obligation—forgoing individuality for the greater family unit. Laws gave parents free reign to keep children in line—even killing children only resulted in mild punishment. Mediterranean culture at the time also followed suit, rewarding children who exhibited adultlike qualities. Laws existed only to ensure children’s rights to property—integral to carrying on the family line. In short: at the time, children in multiple societies did not have the ability to exercise personal ambition. Soon, Buddhism, Christianity, and Islam would have a marked effect on childhood—the idea of a divine soul in every human being gave way to more protections for the young. Infanticide was condemned, as was the sale of children (laws against both were even passed in the Roman Empire). Religious training was emphasized by all world religions—an early version of schooling that would become mandatory in later societies. Once the modern era began, the views on—and function of—>GET ANSWER