Use whatever software resources make the most sense (Tableau, Excel, R, etc.) given that you are working with more than 500 time series.

1.Plot all the series (an advanced data visualization tool is recommended) – what type of components are visible? Are the series similar or different? Check for problems such as missing values and possible errors.

- Partition the series into training and validation, so that the last 4 years are in the validation period for each series. What is the logic of such a partitioning? What is the disadvantage?
- Generate naive forecasts for all series for the validation period. For each series, create forecasts with horizons of 1,2,3, and 4 years ahead (Ft+1, Ft+2, Ft+3, and Ft+4).
- Among the measures MAE, Average error, MAPE and RMSE, which are suitable if we plan to combine the results for the 518 series?
- For each series, compute MAPE of the naive forecasts once for the training period and once for the validation period.
- The performance measure used in the competition is Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE). Explain the advantage of MASE and compute the training and validation MASE for the naive forecasts.
- Create a scatterplot of the MAPE pairs, with the training MAPE on the x-axis and the validation MAPE on the y-axis. Create a similar scatter plot for validation MASE vs. MAPE. Now examine both plots. What do we learn? How does performance differ between the training and validation periods? How does performance range across series?
- The competition winner, Lee Baker, used an ensemble of three methods:

• Naive forecasts multiplied by a constant trend (global/local trend: “globally tourism has grown “at a rate of 6% annually.”)

• Linear regression

• Exponentially-weighted linear regression

(a) Write the exact formula used for generating the first method, in the form Ft+k=…(k=1,2,3,4).

(b) What is the rational behind multiplying the naive forecasts by a constant? (Hint: think empirical and domain knowledge)

(c) What should be the dependent variable and the predictors in a linear regression model for these data? Explain.

(d) Fit the linear regression model to the first five series and compute forecast errors for the validation period.

(e) Before choosing a linear regression, the winner described the following process

“I examined fitting a polynomial line to the data and using the line to predict future values. I tried using first through fifth order polynomials to find that the lowest MASE was obtained using a first order polynomial (simple regression line). This best fit line was used to predict future values. I also kept the [R2] value of the fit for use in blending the results of the predictor.”

What are two flaws in this approach?

(f) If we were to consider exponential smoothing, what particular type(s) of exponential smoothing are reasonable candidates?

(g) The winner concludes with possible improvements, one being “an investigation into how to come up with a blending [ensemble] method that doesn’t use as much manual tweaking would also be of benefit.” Can you suggest methods or an approach that would lead to easier automation of the ensemble step?

(h) The competition focused on minimizing the average MAPE of the next four values across all 518 series. How does this goal differ from goals encountered in practice when considering tourism demand? Which steps in the forecasting process would likely be different in a real-life tourism forecasting scenario?

Sample Solution

There are seven essential components in relational correspondence. These components exist at whatever point we interface somehow or another. The substance of these components is that they are firmly related and progress in an occasional cycle. It is one. DeVito says that there are consistently wellsprings of data when two individuals impart. The originator is the wellspring of the message and is liable for encoding the message and offering significance to the message (DeVito, 2013). The beneficiary of the message being gotten by the inlet is the beneficiary. Relational correspondence is a significant part of life. Notwithstanding trading data among individuals engaged with the correspondence cycle, there are other significant parts of correspondence between individuals (West, 2011). Association of relational relationship assists individuals with obtaining thoughts and relational abilities through the correspondence cycle (DeVito, 2009). All the more critically, when utilizing relational correspondence, the gatherings engaged with the correspondence For some years, people have taken different specialized strategies whether or not they are communicating in, non-verbal communication or gesture based communication. Yet, how does this correspondence influence us as a person? There are different kinds of correspondence, for example, relational correspondence, inside correspondence, culturally diverse correspondence. Seeing how individuals speak with individuals is a significant component in our lives and we have to see how we can speak with ourselves and others. Human correspondence exploration can be extremely muddled, yet it is additionally exceptionally appealing. The cycle of human correspondence is a fascinating point with regards to numerous zones. Since individuals need to speak with other language abilities, relational correspondence is in some cases troublesome. As Givenns expressed, "Our unpredictability is seen using etymological and nonverbal correspondence in our every day lives and the capacity to communicate with people at different levels profoundly and sincerely I will. Mankind is a social creature and must have a place with the network. There are some fundamental and essential data on human correspondence important to comprehend this undertaking. Above all, "Correspondence with individuals is to make and share implications utilizing images" (Givens, 2008, ¶ 1). Strangely, verbal correspondence incorporates verbal jargon as well as composed jargon. The principle type of human correspondence is verbal. People use text strings, complex structures, and utilize their thoughts for text. This is the thing that recognizes people from different species - their language capacities. In any case, correspondence with individuals has an alternate component, and numerous individuals have neglected to utilize this component effectively. That is their non-verbal communication. Creatures impart predominantly through non-verbal communication. To improve the language aptitudes, people have been somewhat taken out from this kind of correspondence. The greater part of our clarification on non-verbal communication is oblivious or subliminal. Accordingly, when you reveal to them secret data, you normally notice the response of that individual to choose whether that individual can be trusted. Instinct is chiefly for your cerebrum to enroll not consciouslyprocess are bound to communicate their feelings and feelings. Subsequently, the utilization of innovation during the time spent relational correspondence is still significant and assumes a significant part in the public eye (Wood, 2010). As per an overview of April 2012, in the previous 30 days, about 70% of cell phone clients and 86% of cell phone clients are leading at any rate one of the accompanying exercises. Subject 9 Interpersonal relationship What is relational correspondence? Relational correspondence Interpersonal correspondence is the way toward conveying, imparting, and haggling between the two individuals. Relational correspondence What is the hypothetical perspective about relational correspondence? Relational correspondence in the 1960's Learning, conflict, balance, social judgment, response. ● Speech and social impact relational relationship From the last part of the 1960s to the mid 1970s ● Self articulation, self exposure, relational connections, nonverbal correspondence and relationship improvement. ● Development of relational connections and relational connections Interpersonal correspondence during the 1970s>

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