What is a Futures Wheel?
A Futures Wheel is a planning tool. It can be used to help predict the outcomes and potential consequences of an event
or change. It looks a bit like a mind-map, in the shape of a wheel. It was first thought of by Jerome Glenn back in the
1970s, as a way to predict the impact of business decisions. He thought it would be useful for anticipating problems.
Creating a Futures Wheel is done in stages. First, identify an event, change or trend. Place that at the centre of the
page.
Then, brainstorm direct consequences (first-order consequences), and place them next to the central event, trend or
change. These are things that could happen as a direct result of the event, change or trend.
Next, brainstorm indirect consequences (second-order consequences), and place them next to the direct consequence
they relate to.
Finally, brainstorm more indirect consequences (third-order consequences), and place them around the indirect
consequence they relate to.
Adding more and more predicted consequences can
eventually form the shape of a wheel.
Ideas near the centre of the wheel are more likely to happen
(nearer to now), and ideas further away from the centre (further
into the future) have less chance of happening.
Event
Change
Trend
Indirect/
3rd-order
consequence
Event
Trend
Change
Direct /
1st-order
consequence
Indirect/
2nd-order
consequence
Event
Trend
Change
Direct/
1st-order
consequence
Indirect/
2nd-order
consequence
Event
Trend
Change
Direct/
1st-order
consequence
Sample Solution
