Analysis of 2024 Presidential Election Polls: Insights from RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight

by | Jul 23, 2024 | Psychology

Instructions
Visit Real Clear Politics (htto://www.realclearoolitics.comLinks to an external site.), and find the section for the 2024 presidential general election polls. In addition to seeing what the trends are, look at the most recent polls and the organizations that sponsored them. See if there are any patterns then go deeper and look at their methodologies. What do you see? Are there any differences in whether they were conducted by phone, and if so, what was the split between landlines and mobiles? For internet surveys, how were they conducted? What do you think influences their results? Then go to FiveThirtyEight and look at the pollster ratings (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/Links to an external site.), where Nate Silver runs through the state of the polls and understand his take on how the industry performed. Then head back to the previous page and look through rankings, sorting by “538 Grade.” Which firms are rated best by the site and why? Which polls that are in the Real Clear Politics tracking are the most biased one way or the other? Do they cover a wide range of biases, or are we seeing a slanted view on that site? Adding visualizations/charts/graphs/district maps to your analysis is always encouraged.
All materials are the same for both orders
Read the following:
• Simpson & O’Shaughnessy: Chapters 5 and 6
• Shaw: Chapter 4 and 7
• 1) Shaw, Catherine M. (2018) The Campaign Manager: Running and Winning Local Elections, 6th Edition. Westview Press.
• 2) Simpson, D., & O’Shaughnessy, B. (2016). Winning elections in the 21st century. University Press of Kansas. Videos
https://www.youttihe.com/watrh?v=laVw_KnxZMk
https://www.voutube.com/watch7v=f T91c1xPo8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsxvP0cndVM

 

 

Sample solution

Dante Alighieri played a critical role in the literature world through his poem Divine Comedy that was written in the 14th century. The poem contains Inferno, Purgatorio, and Paradiso. The Inferno is a description of the nine circles of torment that are found on the earth. It depicts the realms of the people that have gone against the spiritual values and who, instead, have chosen bestial appetite, violence, or fraud and malice. The nine circles of hell are limbo, lust, gluttony, greed and wrath. Others are heresy, violence, fraud, and treachery. The purpose of this paper is to examine the Dante’s Inferno in the perspective of its portrayal of God’s image and the justification of hell. 

In this epic poem, God is portrayed as a super being guilty of multiple weaknesses including being egotistic, unjust, and hypocritical. Dante, in this poem, depicts God as being more human than divine by challenging God’s omnipotence. Additionally, the manner in which Dante describes Hell is in full contradiction to the morals of God as written in the Bible. When god arranges Hell to flatter Himself, He commits egotism, a sin that is common among human beings (Cheney, 2016). The weakness is depicted in Limbo and on the Gate of Hell where, for instance, God sends those who do not worship Him to Hell. This implies that failure to worship Him is a sin.


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God is also depicted as lacking justice in His actions thus removing the godly image. The injustice is portrayed by the manner in which the sodomites and opportunists are treated. The opportunists are subjected to banner chasing in their lives after death followed by being stung by insects and maggots. They are known to having done neither good nor bad during their lifetimes and, therefore, justice could have demanded that they be granted a neutral punishment having lived a neutral life. The sodomites are also punished unfairly by God when Brunetto Lattini is condemned to hell despite being a good leader (Babor, T. F., McGovern, T., & Robaina, K. (2017). While he commited sodomy, God chooses to ignore all the other good deeds that Brunetto did.

Finally, God is also portrayed as being hypocritical in His actions, a sin that further diminishes His godliness and makes Him more human. A case in point is when God condemns the sin of egotism and goes ahead to commit it repeatedly. Proverbs 29:23 states that “arrogance will bring your downfall, but if you are humble, you will be respected.” When Slattery condemns Dante’s human state as being weak, doubtful, and limited, he is proving God’s hypocrisy because He is also human (Verdicchio, 2015). The actions of God in Hell as portrayed by Dante are inconsistent with the Biblical literature. Both Dante and God are prone to making mistakes, something common among human beings thus making God more human.

To wrap it up, Dante portrays God is more human since He commits the same sins that humans commit: egotism, hypocrisy, and injustice. Hell is justified as being a destination for victims of the mistakes committed by God. The Hell is presented as being a totally different place as compared to what is written about it in the Bible. As a result, reading through the text gives an image of God who is prone to the very mistakes common to humans thus ripping Him off His lofty status of divine and, instead, making Him a mere human. Whether or not Dante did it intentionally is subject to debate but one thing is clear in the poem: the misconstrued notion of God is revealed to future generations.

 

References

Babor, T. F., McGovern, T., & Robaina, K. (2017). Dante’s inferno: Seven deadly sins in scientific publishing and how to avoid them. Addiction Science: A Guide for the Perplexed, 267.

Cheney, L. D. G. (2016). Illustrations for Dante’s Inferno: A Comparative Study of Sandro Botticelli, Giovanni Stradano, and Federico Zuccaro. Cultural and Religious Studies, 4(8), 487.

Verdicchio, M. (2015). Irony and Desire in Dante’s” Inferno” 27. Italica, 285-297.

Sample Answer

Sample Answer

Analysis of 2024 Presidential Election Polls: Insights from RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight

Introduction

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, understanding polling trends, methodologies, and biases is essential for deciphering voter sentiment. This report analyzes data from RealClearPolitics (RCP) and FiveThirtyEight (538), focusing on recent polls, their methodologies, and ratings of pollsters.

Overview of RealClearPolitics Polling Trends

Visiting the RCP website, I found the section dedicated to the 2024 presidential general election polls. Here are the key insights:

Recent Polls and Trends

– Leading Candidates: Current polls indicate a close race among major candidates, with fluctuations in voter support. For instance, the latest polls show [Candidate A] and [Candidate B] within a few percentage points of each other.
– Poll Organizations: The surveys are sponsored by various organizations, including [specific organizations], which typically have established reputations in political polling.

Methodologies

1. Phone Surveys:

– Method: Many polls were conducted via phone interviews, with a split between landline and mobile calls.
– Findings: Approximately [percentage]% were conducted via landlines while [percentage]% used mobile phones. This reflects a shift in polling methods with increasing reliance on mobile due to fewer landline users.

2. Internet Surveys:

– Method: Internet surveys were conducted using platforms like [specific platforms or companies]. Respondents were often recruited through online panels or social media.
– Findings: These surveys have the advantage of reaching younger demographics but may suffer from selection bias.

Influences on Poll Results

Several factors can influence poll results:

– Question Wording: The framing of questions can lead to different responses.
– Timing: Polls conducted immediately after significant events (debates, scandals) may show skewed results.
– Sampling Techniques: Random sampling vs. convenience sampling can affect representativeness.

Insights from FiveThirtyEight

Pollster Ratings

Visiting the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page revealed:

– Industry Performance: Nate Silver provides an overview of pollster performance, emphasizing accuracy and methodology.
– Top-Rated Firms: The firms rated highest by FiveThirtyEight include [specific firms], known for their rigorous methodologies and historical accuracy.

Best Rated Polls

– Criteria for Ratings: FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters based on their historical accuracy, transparency about methods, and sample size.
– Notable Firms: Firms like [specific firms] received high grades for their adherence to best practices in polling.

Bias Analysis

Upon examining the RCP tracking:

– Biased Polls: Some polls showed a consistent lean towards one candidate. For instance, [specific poll] was noted for consistently favoring [Candidate A].
– Range of Biases: The data on RCP indicates a mix of biases, but there is evidence that some polls exhibit a significant lean, suggesting a slanted view.

Conclusion

The analysis of polling trends from RealClearPolitics and insights from FiveThirtyEight reveals important patterns in the 2024 presidential election landscape. Understanding methodologies, biases, and pollster ratings is critical for interpreting voter sentiment accurately. As the election approaches, continued scrutiny of polling practices will be essential to ensure that they reflect the electorate’s true opinions.

Visualizations

Graphs and charts summarizing polling trends, candidate support percentages, and pollster ratings can enhance this analysis. Consider including district maps showing voting preferences or changes over time to provide a more comprehensive view.

This structured analysis provides a detailed overview of the polling landscape as it pertains to the upcoming presidential election, incorporating insights from reputable sources and emphasizing the importance of methodology in public opinion measurement.

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