Case : Jim buys a ticket in a million-ticket lottery. He knows it is a fair lottery, and therefore that some ticket will win. However, given the odds, he believes he will lose. When the winning ticket is chosen, it is not his. Case 2: Tim parked his car a few hours ago on Avenue A. He remembers clearly where he left it, and on the basis of that he believes that his car is parked on Avenue A. Tim is also aware of the fact that hundreds of cars are stolen in NYC every day, and he knows that if his car was indeed stolen, it wouldn’t be on Avenue A. When he comes to pick up his car at the end of his workday, his car is indeed where he remembered leaving it. Before Jim learns about the results of the lottery, was it rational for him to believe that his ticket won’t win? Why or why not? Before Tim goes back to pick up his car (i.e., during the workday), was it rational for Tim to believe that his car is parked on Avenue A? Why or why not? What would Nelkin say about Questions 1 and 2? Is there a relevant difference between the cases such that, according to Nelkin, one of the beliefs is rational but the other is not? Do you agree with Nelkin’s diagnosis of these two cases? Why or why not?
3. Preface Paradox (Ryan) Explain the Preface Paradox. Explain Ryan’s solution to the Paradox. Do you agree with Ryan’s solution? Why or why not? 4. The Lottery Paradox (Nelkin, Foley) Explain the Lockean Thesis. Nelkin claims that it is never rational to hold beliefs based merely on statistical evidence. What does she mean by this? How might the truth of the Lockean Thesis pose a problem for Nelkin’s claim? Do you think the Lockean Thesis is true? Why or why not?
