Summarize this paper from a mathematical point of view and combine the knowledge of time series and VAR.
The requirements:

  1. Main Question of the passage(1-2 Paragraph)
    2.Describe the econometric methodology
    1)Data( variable,date)
    2)VAR Specification(main equation used)
    3)Identification Strategy used
    4)Influence:
    a.Impulse response
    b.Gradual Causality
    c.Forecast error term variance decomposition
    3.Discussion of the economic results and significance

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