Pick one (1) of the following three (3) case study scenarios, then research and build your issue paper using the provided format on the PICT210 iLearn page. You may use an ‘intelligence estimate’ approach, employing intelligence preparation of the operational environment or battlespace (IPOE/JIPB), including centres of gravity analysis, or use other appropriate analytical approaches or parts of those approaches, such as: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats (SWOT); Clausewitz ‘Trinity Analysis’; political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, information (PMESII); political, economic, social, technological (PEST); biographical, economic, sociological, transportation and telecommunications, military geography, armed forces, political, science/technology (BESTMAPS); and/or diplomacy, information, military, economic (DIME) levers of national power analytic approaches. Always consider and assess alternative predictive assessments or alternative futures when arriving at most likely & most dangerous course of action (COA) determination. Be critically minded and balanced, yet decisive at the same time, indicating your level of certainty and identifying key knowledge gaps.
Scenario 1. You are a Defence Intelligence Organisation (DIO) intelligence analyst and have been directed to build a comprehensive yet concise ‘Powerpoint presentation’ and ‘Issue Paper’ on the current North Korea situation. You will need to assess North Korea’s Nuclear and Ballistic Missile program capabilities and assess its intent to employ them: how, when and where — most likely and most dangerous courses of action (COAs). You have also been directed to include and assessment of the likelihood of North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons and under what circumstances — most likely and most dangerous North Korean courses of action (COAs).
Scenario 2. You are an Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) intelligence analyst working in the counter terrorism division. You have been directed to build a comprehensive yet concise ‘Powerpoint presentation’ and ‘Issue Paper’ on the current situation concerning ISIS in the Middle East, specifically Syria and Iraq. As part of your analysis, you are to cover the current situation on the ground, including pockets of ISIS presence and resistance, and provide a most likely and most dangerous course of action (COA) assessment for the future of ISIS. You have also been directed to assess the number of Australian citizens who are fighting for ISIS and the likelihood they will return to Australia, as well as providing a brief threat or risk assessment of their activities once they return. Again, a predictive assessment is required to best
determine what preventative actions should be taken in Australia to protect its citizens from potential harm.
Scenario 3. You are an Australian Federal Police intelligence analyst working in organized crime and drug trafficking. You have been directed to research, analyse and deliver a comprehensive yet concise ‘Powerpoint presentation’ and ‘Issue Paper’ on recent crystal meth (Ice) trafficking via maritime vessels, originating from Ice labs in Guangzhou, southeast China. Assess drug traffickers’ methods of transporting Ice into Australia – maritime and air, small vessel, merchant shipping (containers), postal mail service, air freight, human mules or routing through third party countries. Then make a predictive assessment of most likely and most dangerous future courses of action (COAs) for these drug trafficking rings.