Care, a health consultancy company in Saudi Arabia, is studying the economic benefits of a program of preventative COVID-19 flu vaccinations. Care has to give advice to government for COVID-19 vaccination. If vaccinations are not introduced then the estimated cost to the government if flu strikes in the next year is SR.70m with probability 0.1, SR.100m with probability 0.3 and SR.150m with probability 0.6. It is estimated that such a program will cost SR.70m and that the probability of flu striking in the next year is 0.75.
One alternative open to the committee is to institute an “early-warning” monitoring scheme (costing SR.30m) which will enable it to detect an outbreak of flu early and hence institute a rush vaccination program (costing SR.100m because of the need to vaccinate quickly before the outbreak spreads).
Question
As a consultant of Care, Develop a decision tree for alternatives and make recommendation to Indian government that which alternative can maximize expected economic benefits?
Sample Solution
