Correlation and Causation

• significant reduction in test anxiety compared to the control group. The researchers also controlled for potential confounding variables, such as prior meditation experience, general anxiety levels, and academic performance, using statistical techniques. They concluded that the mindfulness meditation program caused a reduction in test anxiety.

• Why Causation is Appropriate: The researchers used a randomized controlled trial (RCT) design, which is the gold standard for establishing causal relationships. Random assignment of participants to groups helps to ensure that any differences in outcomes between the groups can be attributed to the intervention (mindfulness meditation) rather than pre-existing differences between the participants. The inclusion of a control group provides a baseline for comparison and helps to rule out other factors that might have influenced test anxiety levels over time. By statistically controlling for potential confounding variables, the researchers further strengthened their ability to isolate the effect of the mindfulness meditation program. Because of these methodological strengths, the researchers are justified in inferring that the mindfulness meditation program caused a reduction in test anxiety.

Article 2: The Relationship Between Social Media Use and Self-Esteem (Improper Causal Inference)

• Summary: This hypothetical study examined the relationship between social media use and self-esteem in adolescents. Researchers surveyed a large sample of high school students, asking them about their frequency and duration of social media use, as well as their self-esteem levels using a standardized self-esteem scale. The study found a statistically significant negative correlation between social media use and self-esteem. Specifically, students who reported higher levels of social media use tended to have lower self-esteem scores. The researchers concluded that social media use causes lower self-esteem in adolescents.

• Why Causation is Not Appropriate: This study used a correlational design, which can only demonstrate an association between variables, not a causal relationship. While the study found a negative correlation between social media use and self-esteem, it did not manipulate social media use or randomly assign participants to different levels of social media exposure. Therefore, it is impossible to determine whether social media use leads to lower self-esteem, or whether adolescents with lower self-esteem are more likely to use social media, or whether some other factor (e.g., family dynamics, peer relationships) influences both social media use and self-esteem. The study also relied on self-reported data, which can be subject to biases and inaccuracies. Without a stronger research design, the researchers are not justified in concluding that social media use causes lower self-esteem.

What Would Be Needed to Justify a Statement of Cause in Article 2?

To establish a causal relationship between social media use and self-esteem, the researchers would need to conduct a more rigorous study, ideally an experimental or quasi-experimental design. Here are some possibilities:

1. Longitudinal Study: A longitudinal study that follows adolescents over time and measures both social media use and self-esteem at multiple points could provide stronger evidence for a causal relationship. If changes in social media use precede changes in self-esteem over time, it would provide more support for the idea that social media use influences self-esteem. However, this design still doesn’t rule out other influences.

2. Intervention Study (Quasi-Experimental): Researchers could try to implement an intervention that reduces social media use in one group of adolescents and compare their self-esteem levels to a control group that did not receive the intervention. While true random assignment might be difficult, researchers could try to match groups on key demographics. If the intervention group shows an increase in self-esteem compared to the control group, it would provide stronger evidence for a causal link.

3. Experiment (Ideal but challenging): Ideally, researchers would randomly assign adolescents to different levels of social media exposure (e.g., limited use vs. unrestricted use) and then measure their self-esteem. This would be ethically complex, but it would be the most rigorous way to establish causality.

It is important to emphasize that correlation does not equal causation. Just because two variables are related does not mean that one causes the other. Researchers must use appropriate research designs and statistical methods to draw causal inferences. In the case of social media and self-esteem, more rigorous research is needed to determine the true nature of the relationship.