In the year 1830, the global human population had reached 1 billion. By 1950, it was 2.5 billion and today we have surpassed 7 billion people on the planet. This exponential growth in the global human population has not been evenly distributed across all nations. Table 1 shows population of the ten countries with the largest populations. The vast majority of population growth in the next few decades will likely take place in the poorest countries, which are already straining their economies, social services, and environment (Table 2). Nearly all environmental problems we experience today can be linked with human overpopulation and overconsumption. As we grow in numbers, we require more space, more food, and more natural resources. We use more fossil fuels, which contributes to air pollution and climate change. We require more land for food production, which requires more natural ecosystems to be converted to farmland. We dispose of more trash, which contributes to water and ground pollution. In this lab, we will investigate patterns of population growth in different nations and correlate it with factors such as education and economic well-being.
Table 1. Ten countries with the highest populations Table 2. Ten countries with the highest population (UN World Bank). growth rates (CIA World Factbook).
Part I. Population Investigations
For this exercise, you will explore the population growth and characteristics of a country of your choice. Use the iPad app “UN Country Stats” to obtain your data. Include units in your data. Use the most recent data available.
Country:
General Information
*Population:
Population density:
Economic Indicators
*GDP per capita:
Social Indicators
*Population growth rate:
*Fertility rate, total:
*Population age distribution (0-14 years):
*Education: tertiary gross enrollment ratio:
Environmental and Infrastructure Indicators
Threatened species:
CO2 emission estimates:
- Record these values on the board.
Part II. Understanding Exponential Growth
Using the population growth rate for your country, calculate its growth over the next 5 years. In this simulation, you are assuming that the growth rate stays the same for every year. This is exponential growth.
For example, if the starting population is 12 million people and the growth rate is 2.2%, the number of new individuals added to the population in year 0 is 12,000,000 * 0.022 = 264,000 people. The starting population of year 1 is 12,000,000 + 264,000 = 12,264,000.
You found the projected population for 5 years by hand to learn how exponential growth works. Now let’s use an online calculator to predict the population size in 25, 50, 75, and 100 years. Go to http://www.miniwebtool.com/exponential-growth-calculator/ and enter your starting population, your growth rate as a decimal, and the time (25, 50, 75, 100). Enter your results in the data sheet.
Since you are going to plot these values on a graph, keep track of the points to plot. The x-value is the year and the y-value is the starting population for that year.
Year Starting Population Growth Rate New Individuals New Population Size Point to Plot
0 (0,)
1 do not plot
2 do not plot
3 do not plot
4 do not plot
5 do not plot
25 (25,)
50 (50,)
75 (75,)
100 (100,__)
Are there any errors inherent in predicting population growth for 100 years using this method?
Using the data from the table above, plot your country’s population size at 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100 years. Show the graph to your professor.
*Record the estimated population size in 50 years for your country on the board.
Part III. Comparing Population Growth for Countries
Use the countries on the board to answer the following questions.
Which countries are growing the fastest?
Country Annual Growth Rate
1.
2.
3.
Which countries are growing the slowest?
Country Annual Growth Rate
1.
2.
3.
Do any of these countries have a negative population growth?
(If not, find one country online that has a negative population growth.)
Country Annual Growth Rate
1.
Now that you have the estimated population in 50 years for the countries on the board, rank the countries by the highest current population and then the highest population in 50 years.
Country Population Ranking Country Name Current Population
Highest Population
Lowest Population
Country Population Ranking Country Name Population in 50 Years
Highest Population
Lowest Population
Based on your data, in what area of the world will the majority of people live in 50 years?
Are the countries ranked in the same order for current population and for population 50 years from now?
Which countries were ranked higher after 50 years of growth?
What challenges might a country face with a large increase in its population?
Part IV. Comparing Population Growth and Education
For this exercise, you will examine the relationship between total fertility rate and education level of women. The link between education for women and fertility rates has been documented many times (For a summary, see Diamond, I., M. Newby, and S. Varle. 1999. “Female education and fertility: examining the links” in Critical Perspectives on Schooling and Fertility in the Developing World. National Academy Press, Washington, DC.)
For these data, a scatter plot is the most appropriate type of graph since we are looking for a correlation between the two variables. Your instructor will create this graph of the class data (female tertiary education enrollment v. total fertility rate) in Excel for you.
According to our data, is the education of women correlated with total fertility rate?
Even if our class data does not reveal a correlation, why might a relationship between these variables exist?
Part V. Comparing Population Growth and Economic Well-Being
For this exercise, you will examine the relationship between population growth rate and economic well-being.
For these data, a scatter plot is the most appropriate type of graph since we are looking for a correlation between the two variables. Your instructor will create this graph of the class data (GDP per capita v. population growth rate) in Excel for you.
According to our data, is GDP correlated with population growth rate?
Even if our class data does not reveal a correlation, why might a relationship between these variables exist?
Part VI. Comparing Age Structure for Countries
For this exercise, you will examine age structure in each country. We will focus on the percentage of the population between 0-14 years of age in the country. Countries with a large proportion of young children have expanding populations. Countries with a small proportion of young children have shrinking populations.
For these data, a bar graph is most appropriate since we are comparing categories (countries). Your instructor will create this graph of the class data in Excel for you.
What affect will a large proportion of young children in the population have on social services?
What are some reasons a country may have a large proportion of young children?
What effect (economic, social, etc.) will a large proportion of young children have on a country in 10-20 years when the children mature?
Part VII. Environmental Concerns
For the country you chose in Part I, research the specific environmental concerns in that country. Briefly describe three of these concerns and explain how population growth may affect them.
Sample Solution
