Modeling the Impact of African Development Bank Projects: A Case Study of Bank’s portfolio in selected sectors (2006-2018)

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Topic: Modeling the Impact of African Development Bank Projects: A Case Study of Bank’s portfolio in selected sectors (2006-2018)

Papaer Outline:

1.1. INTRODUCTION, PROBLEM STATEMENT
1.1.1. Nigeria macroeconomic performance
1.1.2. Sectoral growth in Nigeria
1.1.3. GDP growth
1.1.4. Nigeria MPI and poverty rate
1.1.5. Overview of African Development Bank Group (it’s High-Fives, Ten Year Strategy and Strategy in Nigeria)
Figure 1.2: Trend analysis of GDP growth, MPI, sectoral growth and poverty rate
1.2. THE MODEL
1.2.1. Demand-Side Effects Caused by Project Implementation
1.2.2. Supply-Side Effects Generated by the Completed Project
1.2.3. Overall Effects on Key Macroeconomic Variables
1.2.3.1. The Impact of the Investment Projects on GDP Growth Dynamics
1.2.3.2. The Impact of the Investment Projects on Sectoral growth
1.2.3.3. The Impact of the Investment Projects on Poverty rate Dynamics
1.2.3.4. The Impact of the Investment Projects on Human Development
1.2.3.5. The Internal Rate of Return
1.3. CASE STUDY: ANALYSIS OF BANK PORTFOLIO IN NIGERIA
1.3.1. Bank Portfolio 2006 – 2018 (supplied side which comprises cancelled projects, closed projects and ongoing projects)
Figure 3.1: Trend in Bank portfolio
Figure 3.2: share of Bank portfolio by sector
1.3.2. Bank’s Indicative Lending Projects and Pipeline Projects 2019 – 2027 (demand side which comprises 2019 lending and pipeline of projects 2020 – 2027)
Figure 3.3: Trend in Bank lending
Figure 3.4: share of Bank lending by sector
1.3.3. Bank’s portfolio and lending delivery challenge in Nigeria
1.3.4. Methodological Approach and Assumptions
Table 1: Selected assumptions used in the model
1.4. IMPACTS ON KEY MACROECONOMIC AND FISCAL INDICATORS
1.4.1. Fiscal impact (Budget Support projects)
1.4.2. Poverty reduction
1.4.3. Human Development and Job creation
Figure 1: Impacts on key macroeconomic and fiscal indicators
Table 2: Internal rate of return (IRR) by type
1.5. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Table 3: Sensitivity tests of coefficient assumptions, in percent
1.5.1. Scenario 1: Sensitivity to External Financing Terms
Figure 2: The sensitivity of macroeconomic variables to changes in project financing terms
1.5.2. Scenario 2: Sensitivity to the Marginal Propensity to Import (MPM)
Figure 3: The sensitivity of macroeconomic variables to a reduction in the MPM
1.5.3. Scenario 3: Sensitivity to the Elasticity of Supply
1.6. POLICY APPLICATIONS
1.7. Table 4: Internal rates of return under the baseline and alternative scenarios
1.8. DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS PRESENTATION (based on econometric analysis, using e-views, SPSS, Excel Analysis Tool)
1.9. FINDINGS, CONCLUSION, AND RECOMMENDATION

Strongly suggested reference list to obtained data

http://nigeria.opendataforafrica.org/apps/gallery
http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria/projects
https://www.afdb.org/en/the-high-5/
http://dataportal.opendataforafrica.org/dqkpfng
https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/project-operations/country-portfolio-performance-review/
https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/NGA
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2018/03/07/Nigeria-2018-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-45699
https://data.worldbank.org/country/nigeria

Sample Solution

ACED ESSAYS