There are many misconceptions about probability which may include the following.
● All events are equally likely.
● Later events may be affected by or compensate for earlier ones.
● When determining probability from statistical data, sample size is irrelevant.
● Results of games of skill are unaffected by the nature of the participants.
● “Lucky/Unlucky” numbers can influence random events.
● In random events involving selection, results are dependent on number rather than rations.
● If events are random, then the results of a series of independent events are equally likely.
The following statements are all incorrect. Explain the statements and the errors fully using the probability rules discussed in topic two.
1. The number 7 is a lucky number so you are more likely to win raffles with ticket number 7 than with a different number.
2. I roll two dice and add the results. The probability of getting a total of 8 is 1/12 because there are 12 different possibilities and 8 is one of them.
3. Mr. Verde has to have a major operation. Ninety-three percent of the people who have this operation make a complete recovery. There is a 93% chance that Mr. Verde will make a complete recovery if he has this operation.
4. The Ramblers play the Chargers. The Ramblers can win, loose, or draw, so the probability that they win is 1/3.
5. I have flipped an unbiased coin four times and got heads. It is more likely to get tails the next time I flip it.
6. Thirty random college students are asked if they study during the week. Since 60% said yes, a statement can be made that 40% of students only study on the weekend.
7. I have two coins. If I flip them together, the probability of getting a heads and a tails is 1/3. This is because you can only get two heads, two tails, or one head and one tail.
