Public Opinion Polls

A. Choose a recent (in the last five years) public opinion poll to analyze. I recommend using the Gallup website (http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx?ref=logo).
B. Share your chosen poll on the class discussion board.
C. Identify and discuss any potential problems with the survey instruments (i.e. wording, vagueness, wordiness, emotionality, double-barrel, and other biases).
D. Discuss the validity of your poll by addressing the following elements:

  1. Who was polled?
    Critical to understanding any poll data is knowing what group was sampled. Are the opinions reported those of all adults or just voters; all Georgians or just those who live in cities; all parents or just those with school-age children? In addition, to be statistically valid, the sample itself must be randomly selected and of adequate size. In general, the larger the size of the sample, the more reliable the results.
    Any report based on the opinions of people who actively choose to participate — such as magazine readers who mail back a survey or callers to talk radio shows — is not built on a representative sample of the larger group. While such surveys might be interesting, they cannot be construed to represent the opinions of a larger group.
  2. How were the questions worded?
    Identify and discuss any potential problems with the survey instruments (i.e. wording, vagueness, wordiness, emotionality, double-barrel, and other biases).
    The exact wording of survey questions can have a major influence on the results. Taking a close look at how the questions were worded is one of the most important things a reader can do to evaluate public opinion research. The order in which questions are asked can also affect a poll's results. 2) Two types of questions frequently used in polls are "forced choice" questions, where respondents are provided with a list of answers to choose from, and "open-ended" questions, which allow respondents to give whatever answer they like. Open-ended questions are best used when the researchers know little about the public's opinions on a particular topic. The responses to an open-ended question reveal the entire range of beliefs people hold on the topic.
    The varied answers to open-ended questions are grouped into larger categories by the poll takers for reporting purposes. This must be done carefully to avoid biasing the conclusions.
    When asking questions about public policy issues such as education, forced choice questions work well when public opinion researchers already have some idea of the options the public is considering. Asking respondents to pick only one option from a list, or to rank the options, can reveal their priorities among alternatives in a way that an open-ended question cannot. What is included on the list of choices is crucial. The results only identify the public's priorities among the alternatives offered; if an option that has meaningful public support is left off, the results may be confusing or incomplete. In addition, the order in which the choices are presented must be systematically rotated during the polling to ensure unbiased results.
  3. What was the timing of the research?
    A poll is a "snapshot" of the opinions of a group of people at a particular time. It is important to consider the timing of a survey. Did it solicit opinion on a particular topic soon after a related event occurred? An example would be conducting a survey on air safety a week after a major air disaster.

Sample Solution