The Impact of Absence: A Hypothetical Analysis of Islamism Without Key Events in 1979
The events of 1979, including the Iranian revolution, the hijacking of the Grand Mosque in Mecca, and the Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan, have been pivotal in shaping the spread of Islamism globally. These incidents have had far-reaching consequences, impacting countries like Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. However, what if none of these three events had occurred? How would national and transnational Islamism have evolved, and would militant jihadist groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS have emerged?
National Islamism in Pakistan and Egypt
Without the catalyzing events of 1979, national Islamism in countries like Pakistan and Egypt may have evolved differently. The Iranian revolution, which inspired Islamist movements worldwide, would not have served as a model for Islamist groups in these countries. In the absence of external influences, domestic Islamist movements might have developed along different ideological lines, focusing more on local issues and grievances rather than global jihad.
In Pakistan, where Islamist groups have significant influence, the absence of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan could have altered the trajectory of Islamist militancy. Without the opportunity to join the Afghan jihad against the Soviets, Pakistani militants may have been less organized and cohesive. Similarly, in Egypt, the lack of external events fueling Islamist fervor might have led to a less radicalized Islamist movement focused on social reform within the country.
Saudi Arabia and Iran
Saudi Arabia and Iran, two major players in the Islamic world, would have also experienced different trajectories without the events of 1979. The Iranian revolution, which established an Islamic republic in Iran, would not have served as a revolutionary model for other Muslim-majority countries. Without the rise of Khomeini’s regime, Iran might have continued on a more secular path, potentially affecting the spread of Shia Islamist ideology globally.
In Saudi Arabia, the hijacking of the Grand Mosque in Mecca was a turning point that reinforced the kingdom’s commitment to conservative Wahhabi Islam. Without this incident, Saudi Arabia may have pursued more moderate religious policies and reforms, potentially reducing the influence of ultra-conservative Islamist groups within the country.
Development of Nationalist Islamism
In the absence of key events in 1979, nationalist Islamist movements in regions like Palestine, Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Dagestan may have taken different forms. The Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan played a crucial role in mobilizing jihadist fighters from various countries to join the Afghan resistance. Without this conflict as a focal point, nationalist Islamist movements in these regions might have remained more localized and less interconnected.
Emergence of Transnational Islamism and Militant Jihadism
The interconnected nature of global Islamist movements could have been significantly altered without the events of 1979. The absence of key catalysts for transnational Islamism, such as the Iranian revolution and the Afghan jihad, might have limited the spread of radical ideologies across borders. Without these events, the emergence of militant jihadist groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS could have been delayed or prevented altogether, as their origins were closely tied to the geopolitical landscape shaped by events in 1979.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the hypothetical scenario of imagining a world without the events of 1979 offers insights into how key historical incidents have shaped the evolution of Islamism globally. The absence of these catalysts would likely have led to different trajectories for national Islamist movements in countries like Pakistan and Egypt, altered the political landscapes of Saudi Arabia and Iran, and influenced the development of nationalist and transnational Islamist ideologies. While it is challenging to predict with certainty how history would have unfolded without these pivotal events, it is clear that the interconnected nature of global Islamist movements has been profoundly influenced by the events of 1979 and their aftermath.
